Analyzing the situation of the last days and the collapse of the bitcoin course, we can conclude that this currency is quite dependent on the number of transactions in the network and is even vulnerable. Simply put, if all sharply begin to make bitcoin transfers from the wallet to the wallet or from the wallet to the exchange and back, then the network does not have time to process all payments. In the end, to be sure that your payment will be accurate, you have to set a higher commission amount than the average. Thus, the average commission is growing and so on.
THE EVALUATED CAUSE WHY THE BITCOIN
We observed the results just the other day and are still seeing. If earlier the average commission was about a dollar for the transfer, then yesterday-the day before yesterday we were forced to pay up to $ 40 or even $ 50, which put a cross on small and urgent payments. This caused significant damage to the authority of the bitcoin itself, which ruined its price by almost half.
And if you do not just look at the situation with bitcoin because it’s in the trend, but really use bitcoin, you probably are straining the price for the commission when transferring. And it is unlikely that you may have the idea of transferring someone bitcoins in the equivalent of rubles to less than 5 thousand rubles.
The commission now for the transaction reaches sometimes more than 100$ , regardless of the size of the transaction.
Those. the current situation excludes from the market small transactions and “retail” trade.
And this means that bitcoin having such commissions can become a tool only for large investments and transactions, thereby throwing out small participants from the market – those whose average transaction in the system does not exceed the commission amount hundreds of times. It also throws out those who can not conserve and do not use significant amounts of funds from strategic motives. And this is a pretty big part of the market.
Why is it good?
There is a balance in this system. The fall in the rate and the increase in the commission will frighten small traders, thereby reducing the number of transactions per day. Actually, the system to increase the commission price is a forced measure to protect against spam transactions. If the commission did not grow, the system would have been laid out long ago. Reducing transactions will reduce the commissions, thereby returning the opportunity for small transactions. A drop in the bitcoin course will certainly attract a certain share of large investors of adventurers who will buy up large stocks and raise the price of trades.
Than it is bad?
Dangerous here is the increase in commissions and the consequent unprofitability of small transactions. And this is fraught with the fact that there will be problems in the shadow market. Namely, most of all drug trafficking. Hundreds of thousands of private drug stores will not benefit from selling small quantities of their goods. More precisely, their customers will be extremely unprofitable to take their drugs with such a commission. Here, sellers will have to compromise and divide the fees of the commissions with the client together, i.e. very significantly lowering the final price of the goods (there are no other options), which I think quite a few people want.
And it seems that we have a difference to the drug trade and it seems even worth rejoicing that the drug business faces some problems.
But, if you do not blame yourself and honestly admit, the price of bitcoins, except as a speculative factor (as many incompetent people say, that the bitcoin-soap bubble) is backed up by a real huge turnover, so bitcoin is not quite a soap bubble. And almost the only type of product that you can easily buy for bitcoins around the world are drugs. Those. bitcoin in fact, it is still specific such shares of the black market, which are not bad growing. Money does not smell? 🙂 Especially if it’s a crypto currency? 🙂 By the way, did you guess this or even did not expect?
The famous and recently closed the largest black market in the Torah SilkRoad-completely worked on bitkoyne.
Multiple analogues, including Russian major projects such as Hydra, LegalRC and even recently working RAMP-a (these are all huge “aliexpresses” and “Amazons” only for drugs) – still almost all of them work completely on bitcoin. Those everything in this system from a particular drug user, from a simple mortgagee and the owner of a medium-sized store inside these sites, to the largest wholesalers, manufacturers and actually to the owners of these sites – use for all mutual settlements the Bitcoin crypto currency. And do not have any insider information or secret information, you can just go to one of the sites – just to estimate the daily turnover of the crypto currency, because some sites do not hide real statistics on the number of stores in their system, and the shops themselves open the statistics of transactions. By simple calculations, multiplying a very average check for the goods by the number of transactions, we can only assume what a huge amount of crypto currency is in this area, hundreds of millions of dollars.
And just this part bitcoin, unlike the funds frozen by investors – is very mobile and is a real sector of the shadow economy.
And the circulation of bitcoins is obsessed, but not entirely. Retail buyers are constantly getting more and more bitcoins for transactions through the exchange of fiat (real) money in exchangers, this currency is gradually rising up the hierarchy, partially settling on the middle links of the trade chain, and eventually settles with the major players in the drug trade. And since except for drugs for bitcoin buy so far nothing special in the legal world, large “drug-players” are beginning to launder, or rather to drain huge amounts of bitcoin changing them to the real (real) money, thereby throwing again the currency to various exchangers.
And this is what the further development of the situation may be.
a) The situation with retail trade will be terrible because of commissions for the transaction
the consortium of the largest drug sites will agree and completely abandon bitcoin, as from the main currency and sharply move to a more profitable and convenient crypto currency, the choice of which is now quite large. Yes, it is very hard to hit financially small, medium and even large players of the market, someone probably even ruins and throws to the sidelines. But the whole industry will have to succumb and agree with the rules. A quick transition to another crypto currency will cause a tremendous movement in the market, and all participants of the drug business will drain the bitkoy as soon as possible. Firstly, in order to buy a new currency for trading and have time to master the market until the new currency has begun to grow significantly. And secondly, it seems to me almost obvious that with such cardinal changes in the system of trade, the bitcoin rate will very rapidly fall due to a huge number of those wishing to exchange them as soon as possible to the Fiat or a new crypto-currency, which will damp the price down even to themselves in a loss for a number of psychologically analytical factors:
– These market participants will sharply calculate the new designated crypto currency for trade – legitimate, and therefore promising in growth. Because they will continue to make a profit already in this currency at the expense of sales of goods and will also use it for purchases.
– These same market participants will consider bitcoin already hopeless, tk. unlike crypto-investors, they are part of the real sector of the shadow economy and they need money for which you can buy real goods.
– The overflow of such a huge amount of funds from one crypto currency (from bitcoin) to another (which technically will be more convenient anyway than bitcoin) will cause a stable drop in the bitcoin rate. And most likely the bitcoin price will be corrected, but it will not be as huge as it was predicted earlier. And as a result, bitcoin will begin to turn slowly into a real bubble, not supported by real trade and will live only through speculative market processes.
And if we summarize, this variant of events can lead to:
– first a sharp, and then a gradual but very long fall bitcoin
– to a radical growth of the new crypto currency, which the drug business will take as a basis
– and as a result there will be a gradual transition of large investors and bitcoin holders into a new crypt that as a whole can kill bitcoyne to an indecently low level
b) And another scenario is possible if the drug business does not make radical changes and how the solution to the problem with the commissions will do the following: Simply inject additional crypto currency into the market along with bitcoin for small transactions, for example the same light currency whose price change graph almost completely copies the bitcoat schedule or bitkoyankesh or “vanguuyu” Crypto currency Durov.
This will solve the problem with small transactions, due to the legitimization of transactions by another currency. In any way, internal and external exchangers with bitcoins and new crypts are formed within the trading systems, and then the common market of trade will not fall on turnover and both currencies will be legitimate and most likely to grow steadily attracting more and more investors.
Something like that.
Well, there is another option that the bitcoin system will cope with the flow of transactions, somehow the transaction spam will stop and the commission to the miners for the transaction will decrease to acceptable sizes. And then most likely too bitcoin again crawls stably up.